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onClick="ad0.style.fontSize='12px';">縮小字體</a>】</div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="title0">產(chǎn)能過剩需求縮減鋼鐵行業(yè)或?qū)ⅰ叭攵?/div> <hr /> <div>2008年09月22日 10:06 來源：經(jīng)濟參考報 <span id="49c1n6wlf" class="style3"><a href='http://comment.chinanews.com.cn/comments/comments.php?newsid=1389242' target="_blank"><img src="/fileftp/2007/12/2007-12-13/U31P4T47D7993F967DT20071213101145.gif" width="14" height="14" border=0 /> <span id="49c1n6wlf" class="style3">發(fā)表評論 </span></a></span> </div> <hr /> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="content" class="cStyle0"> <br><img src=http://image3.chinanews.com.cn/06p/PhotoN/060303/060303031a_3.jpg><br><br><p align=left> 國家統(tǒng)計局近期發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年8月份生鐵、粗鋼和鋼材產(chǎn)量分別為4005萬噸、4257萬噸和4780萬噸，分別同比下降1.5%、增長1.3%和下降0.2%。業(yè)內(nèi)專家分析指出，這是鋼鐵產(chǎn)能過剩的明顯信號。中新社發(fā) 井韋攝</p><br> <table width=100% border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=3 class=12v><tr><td width=77%><table width=100% border=0 cellspacing=2 cellpadding=5><tr><td class=12v bgcolor=E4EEFC><font color=#FF6600><b>版權(quán)聲明:</b></font><font color=#666666>凡標注有“cnsphoto”字樣的圖片版權(quán)均屬中國新聞網(wǎng)，未經(jīng)書面授權(quán)，不得轉(zhuǎn)載使用。</font></td></tr></table></td></tr></table> </div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="slice"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="ad0" class="font16Style"><p>　　國家統(tǒng)計局近期發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年8月份生鐵、粗鋼和鋼材產(chǎn)量分別為4005萬噸、4257萬噸和4780萬噸，分別同比下降1.5%、增長1.3%和下降0.2%。當月粗鋼、鋼材日均產(chǎn)量分別為137萬噸和154萬噸，同比分別下降7.5%和1%，也是近年來日均產(chǎn)量首次出現(xiàn)同比下降。與此同時鋼材價格卻不斷走低，且市場需求十分低迷。 </p> <p>　　業(yè)內(nèi)專家分析指出，這是鋼鐵產(chǎn)能過剩的明顯信號。目前國內(nèi)鋼鐵工程投資正在不斷增長，相反國內(nèi)外需求卻呈現(xiàn)急劇縮減態(tài)勢，今后鋼材市場將面臨一個持續(xù)下跌的局面，形勢非常嚴峻。</p> <p>　<strong>　鋼鐵生產(chǎn)回落但工業(yè)投資強勁</strong></p> <p>　　“還沒等倉庫里的貨銷售多少，又有新生產(chǎn)的出來了，”河北一位鋼鐵業(yè)人士無奈地告訴記者，受資金壓力，除了一些小型鋼廠停產(chǎn)、倒閉外，一些大型民營鋼廠今年開始都紛紛減產(chǎn)，而對于國內(nèi)大型鋼鐵企業(yè)，生產(chǎn)計劃變動難度很大，企業(yè)往往只能硬著頭皮往下干�！按蠖鄶�(shù)鋼鐵企業(yè)都在虧損，而且紛紛都在壓低價格出貨。”這位人士說。</p> <p>　　統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)表明，2008年1至8月份累計，全國鋼材產(chǎn)量39982萬噸，同比增長10.1%，增長水平比去年同期減速14%。其中8月份鋼材產(chǎn)量4780萬噸，環(huán)比下降6.3%；同比下降0.2%，比去年同期減速近25%。</p> <p>　　而8月份重要鋼材產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)中，鋼筋產(chǎn)量763萬噸，比去年同期下降11%；盤條產(chǎn)量660萬噸，下降5.9%；棒材產(chǎn)量372萬噸，下降6%；熱軋薄板產(chǎn)量47萬噸，下降14.3%；焊管產(chǎn)量199萬噸，下降3.2%；熱軋窄鋼帶產(chǎn)量222萬噸，下降27.5%。</p> <p>　　雖然中國鋼材產(chǎn)能開始顯現(xiàn)過剩，鋼鐵工業(yè)投資卻繼續(xù)強勁增長。據(jù)統(tǒng)計，今年1—7月份累計，全國黑色金屬冶煉及延壓加工業(yè)實際完成投資1667億元，同比增幅為28.2%，比去年同期提高了19個百分點，為3年來的最高水平。“中國鋼鐵工業(yè)投資進一步提速，表明中國鋼材產(chǎn)能仍在膨脹，今后過剩問題可能更為嚴重，這對于下階段的國內(nèi)鋼材供求關(guān)系而言，實在不是一個好消息。”蘭格鋼鐵研究中心資深專家陳克新表示。</p> <p>　　<strong>鋼材需求持續(xù)萎縮</strong></p> <p>　　“除了奧運限產(chǎn)，更重要的原因是需求不旺�！标惪诵赂嬖V記者，今年以來不僅國內(nèi)消費鋼材的三大最終消費品：住宅、汽車、家用電器市場疲軟，并且工業(yè)鍋爐、金屬切削機床等投資產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量也出現(xiàn)了全面下降，或者是增速的急劇回落。據(jù)統(tǒng)計，8月份全國內(nèi)燃機產(chǎn)量同比下降21.9%，金屬切削機床產(chǎn)量下降3.5%，汽車產(chǎn)量下降3.3%；工業(yè)鍋爐產(chǎn)量雖然還在增長，但同比增速比7月份又回落了1.4%；其他如拖拉機、機械設(shè)備、冰箱、空調(diào)等生產(chǎn)情況也不理想。</p> <p>　　“在這種情況下，鋼鐵企業(yè)除了被迫減產(chǎn)和向境外尋找出路之外，似乎別無選擇�！眹┚蹭撹F行業(yè)分析師崔婧怡在接受本報記者采訪時說，“前幾年由于鋼材出口量的大幅上升，分擔了國內(nèi)過剩的部分產(chǎn)能�，F(xiàn)在隨著出口量的減少和國內(nèi)需求相對疲軟，進一步凸顯鋼材產(chǎn)能的過剩問題�！�</p> <p>　　國家信息中心高級經(jīng)濟師張永軍告訴記者，由于近期美國“次貸危機”的不斷擴大，全球以房地產(chǎn)為首的各行各業(yè)都面臨著生產(chǎn)和需求的下滑，對鋼材需求將會出現(xiàn)極大的萎縮。同時，國內(nèi)機械、小五金、家電等鋼鐵下游產(chǎn)業(yè)出口量的減少也將會間接影響鋼鐵行業(yè)。</p> <p>　　統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，作為全球第一大鋼材生產(chǎn)國和鋼材出口國，2006年中國的鋼材出口量達到了4300萬噸，2007年達到了6264萬噸，而2008年1-8月份，鋼材出口4184萬噸，同比減少325萬噸，下降7.2%�！耙坏╀摬某隹谑艿绞澜玟摬男枨蠹眲∥s影響，必將會把中國國內(nèi)鋼材產(chǎn)能‘供過于求’的程度推升到一個新的高度，屆時國內(nèi)鋼材行業(yè)將會面臨一個長期的下滑局面�！睆堄儡娬f，“鋼鐵行業(yè)的低迷還有可能向其它行業(yè)傳導，對一些行業(yè)的生產(chǎn)造成負面影響�！�</p> <p>　　<strong>鋼鐵行業(yè)開始走向“冬天”</strong></p> <p>　　“鋼材價格下行將帶來原材料價格下行，從而帶來鋼鐵鏈條上整體轉(zhuǎn)折。”崔婧怡告訴記者，隨著國內(nèi)外鋼鐵需求減緩導致對原料需求疲軟，已經(jīng)開始拉動鐵礦石、焦炭、廢鋼等鋼鐵爐料和海運費用的下降，引發(fā)鋼材生產(chǎn)成本支撐點位下移�！皬纳习肽赇撹F行業(yè)盈利到現(xiàn)在下行態(tài)勢，預(yù)示了整個行業(yè)將由‘春天’向‘冬天’的過渡。”崔婧怡說。</p> <p>　　蘭格鋼鐵研究中心數(shù)據(jù)顯示，與月初比較，截止9月16日各品種鋼材價格下跌幅度均在150元左右。“目前北京市場庫存總量不大，北京建筑鋼材庫存在21.82萬噸，還是處在較低的水平，隨著北京單雙號限行取消，北京鋼材市場將恢復(fù)正常的交易，市場短期將可能會有微小上升，但是不會持續(xù)�！睎|方證券鋼鐵行業(yè)分析師楊寶峰表示，鋼材價格在今后1-2個月內(nèi)仍會呈現(xiàn)趨弱的態(tài)勢，未來不可能出現(xiàn)大幅反彈。</p> <p>　　楊寶峰指出，一方面國家淘汰落后產(chǎn)能的工作力度不斷加大，另一方面受資金緊張和市場低迷因素影響，國內(nèi)一些鋼廠將依然會采取檢修或者停產(chǎn)等手段控制產(chǎn)能，一定程度會緩解產(chǎn)能過剩情況。記者了解到，除太鋼在9月份進行檢修外，馬鋼將在10月和12月對熱軋生產(chǎn)線進行檢修，此外萊鋼也計劃在10月對1500mm熱軋生產(chǎn)線進行檢修，總計減少約23萬噸以上產(chǎn)量。（記者楊燁實習生殷丹丹陳希） </div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="partner"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="editor">【<font color=CC0000>編輯:</font>楊威】</div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="guestbook"><TABLE style="MARGIN-TOP: 7px" cellSpacing=0 width="100%" id="comments"> <TBODY> <TR> <TD vAlign=top> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="" style="CLEAR: both; MARGIN-TOP: 10px; BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(http://comment.chinanews.com.cn/comments/images/3.gif); HEIGHT: 23px"> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="12v" style="PADDING-LEFT: 10px; FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FLOAT: left; 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